New car registration forecast 2011
16.12.2010
D hat would be a plus of six percent. If the economy continues to develop positively, this mark could easily be exceeded.
The 2010 slump is less bad than feared
The forecast is in line with the estimate of the Association of the Automotive Industry. Thanks to the increasing global demand, the VDA is anticipating record levels for German manufacturers in export and domestic production at the same time.
In the current year, the VDIK expects a decrease of 3.8 million registrations after the record year 2009 driven by the scrapping bonus 23 percent to 2.92 million new cars - and thus to a level that was last seen before reunification.
'We are 5.5 percent below the 2008 figures - but not as far as many feared ', emphasized Lange and drew a consistently positive balance of the scrapping bonus:' The environmental bonus did the automotive industry in Germany good to decide on a new vehicle. ' In addition, the bonus, together with the short-time work regulation, saved jobs, especially with suppliers, during the crisis.
Importers lose market share in 2011
According to forecasts, the market share of foreign manufacturers will decrease in the current year by 40.7 to 35.9 percent, which is just above the value of 2008. Because importers such as Peugeot, Nissan or Fiat are particularly strong in the small car segment, they benefited in 2009 from the scrapping premium. The VDIK had therefore always interpreted the success as a one-time outlier. In the medium term, the association believes that importers can maintain market shares at the current level.
The trend towards smaller vehicles with lower fuel consumption and lower emissions will continue, according to Lange. 'We are traditionally well positioned in these segments and will know how to take advantage of the opportunities,' he said. Should this trend solidify, the importers could possibly expand their market share somewhat as early as 2011.
The commercial vehicle market will also recover
According to the information provided, the German commercial vehicle market has clearly fallen from the low in the current year The crash recovered in the crisis year 2009, but has not yet returned to the long-term average level. The VDIK expects a good 280,000 approvals for vans, trucks and tractors in 2010. In the coming year, the average will be exceeded again, predicted Lange:'I am convinced that the commercial vehicle market will continue to grow in 2011. I reckon with 296,000 registrations - an increase of six percent.'
