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auto motor und sport congress: No more combustion engines by 2040

auto motor und sport congress 2019
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A lle talk about what the future holds for us. But what we often overlook is the fact that the world of tomorrow is already taking shape. Above all, the global situation with congested streets and air pollution in many cities is putting pressure on the existing traffic concepts, which is why mobility is currently experiencing a paradigm shift - the future is no longer just predicted, concrete proposals for solutions are already on the table. What these are and what they bring in practice was discussed at the tenth auto motor und sport congress in Stuttgart with around 400 participants.

The development is progressing rapidly and Daimler boss Dieter Zetsche knows which strategy his company will follow after leaving the company Mai, wants to concentrate: 'In the next few years our focus will be on battery-electric drives, they will move us forward.' Mercedes could not build the infrastructure, not strengthen the networks, not build the regenerative energy sources, the framework must be created by politics, according to Zetsche in the opening meeting with the auto motor und sport editors-in-chief Birgit Priemer and Ralph Alex. He asks whether it makes sense for the government to focus so much on battery-electric propulsion. 'Technology openness is the order of the day, here the industry shouldn't be so meek towards politics,' says RWTH researcher Professor Günther Schuh, who is also head of the electric car manufacturer e.Go in Aachen. Zetsche does not see the battery car as the only solution, but promising technologies such as the fuel cell vehicle cannot yet be used in mass production. 'What does the customer get if the tank is empty after 100 km and he has to park the car because there is no hydrogen filling station.'

Electric car 8,000 euros cheaper

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'You are content with a cheap drive that is enough for 150 km.' - e.GO boss Günther Schuh

It is unclear who should bear the costs for the infrastructure. The auto industry doesn't want it. 'We have to see that mobility can be kept affordable, it has to do more in the future - but it will not get cheaper,' Zetsche is convinced. The e.Go boss Schuh, on the other hand, still sees a lot of potential in terms of costs. “You are satisfied with an inexpensive drive that is enough for 150 km.” Savings can also be made on the body: “As long as we don't build 80,000 electric cars, I recommend the industry to use the inexpensive lightweight construction concept of the e.Go with one stable plastic ”, says Schuh.

Instead of 120, he only had six million euros in tool costs and instead of building a production hall, he rented one. All the optimizations in construction and production mean that he can offer his little e.Go 8,000 euros cheaper. “In addition, there are the cheapest insurance classifications,” says Schuh happily.

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'CO2-freedom will not work and CO2 reduction will not work is not cheap - mobility is becoming more expensive per se. ”- Peter Gutzmer, Deputy Chairman and Chief Technology Officer at Schaeffler

Also for Peter Gutzmer, Deputy Chairman and Chief Technology Officer at Schaeffler, the Mob cost a lot in the future. 'CO2-free will not work and CO2 reduction is not cheap - mobility will be more expensive per se.' Therefore, in his opinion, there will be combustion engines in traffic until after 2040, but then increasingly with regenerative fuels. The market needs the technology openness to only rely on battery drives, he does not consider it expedient. 'We are now seeing hybrids, then battery drives will come, after 2030 there will also be hydrogen drives.'

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'Often the necessary Metals for e-cars mined under catastrophic human rights, ecological and social conditions. ' - Sven Hilbig, Bread for the World

Although the rapid move away from the combustion engine is good for the climate, the switch to electric motors is good Sven Hilbig is convinced of Bread for the World not the solution. In his opinion, the reason for this is the fact that almost 100 percent of the metals required for electrically powered vehicles come from developing and emerging countries - these are often mined under catastrophic human rights, ecological and social conditions. Against this background, says Hilbig, the auto industry must contribute to a socio-ecological extraction of raw materials. The former Formula 1 world champion Nico Rosberg sees it similarly and supports the student demos “Fridays for Future” and has asked the automotive industry to respond to the demands of the students. 'All companies in the world see: If my products don't become more ecological, then young people will no longer buy them,' says Rosberg.

Kodak moment of the automotive industry

ABB boss Ulrich Spiesshofer is also promoting environmentally friendly production, but he is convinced that the electric car will soon be standard. “The auto industry has arrived at the Kodak moment. We have to think about how the transport system will evolve, ”says Spiesshofer, recalling how the film turned from a role into a digital image. “Vehicles and business models are fundamentally changing. The conversion shows enormous opportunities for growth. “

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'Vehicles and business models are fundamentally changing. The conversion shows enormous opportunities for growth. ”- ABB boss Ulrich Spiesshofer

But an industry has to do its homework first. “We still haven't solved the problem with the infrastructure; But that is pretty crucial for success, ”says Dirk Walliser, Head of Central Research and Development at ZF. If you tackle the problem quickly, e-mobility can get going. But it doesn't look like that. “We won't see higher volumes of e-cars until 2021 and 2022,” says Continental boss Elmar Degenhart. “After 2040, the combustion engines will expire, then no new combustion engines will be sold,” said the Continental forecast that Degenhart presented to 400 car managers on Tuesday at the auto motor und sport congress in Stuttgart. 'The auto industry is currently mastering the most fundamental transformation since its inception.'

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' After 2040 the combustion engines will expire, then no new combustion engines will be sold. ' - Elmar Degenhart, Continental boss (2nd from left)

The pressure on the industry is increasing because there are no more only the car manufacturers who are pushing into the vehicle market and want to benefit from the growth. There is also a threat of new competition from companies outside the industry. The supermarket chain Walmart or the Deutsche Post rely on their own transport vehicles. “Logistics will bring more vehicles onto the market,” says Marcus Willand from the consulting firm MHP, which belongs to Porsche. “In private, the kilometers are decreasing because people don't go to shopping centers as often, but the kilometers of the logisticians will multiply.” And this is where Google and Co. come into play. “The digital providers are pushing their way between customers and automakers,” says Willand. “You have priorityall about customer contacts. ”This is how the automotive industry has to learn how digital value chains work.

100 million lines of code in the car

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' The Robo-Taxi e.GO Mover, probably the one this year Gets street legal, drives electrically and fully networked. ”- Dirk Walliser, ZF Friedrichshafen AG

But to do this, she is entering new fields - especially when it comes to software -Competence concerns. There are already around 100 million lines of code in their vehicles, almost twice as many as in the databases of Facebook, for example, but that's not all in competition. 'The automotive industry does not have sufficient software competence,' says Continental boss Elmar Degenhart. “You don't have much time to acquire them.” The IT industry has the competence and is pushing into the vehicle sector. She lacks the know-how in the areas of specification, validation and homologation for safe approval, says Degenhart.

Especially when it comes to autonomous and networked driving, companies from outside the industry are already well in the development. But you don't have to hide in Germany, as Dirk Walliser from ZF points out. 'The Robo-Taxi e.GO Mover, which will probably get road approval this year, drives electrically and is fully networked.' The industry was able to reduce the error rate in object recognition to just 2.3 percent; in 2010 it was 28.2 percent. 'The AI ​​is ripe, works and is here,' says Walliser.

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'We do not learn from the number of successful kilometers, but from the many mistakes and their causes during the test drives.' - Chris Urmson, Aurora boss

The value of testing does not lie in the number of kilometers, but in recognizing the things and situations that lead to an error, that is also what Aurora boss Chris Urmson does so. He is currently considered one of the greatest experts in the field of autonomous driving. “We don't learn from the number of kilometers we have successfully completed, but from the many mistakes and their causes during the test drives.” The industry still has a lot of work to do. Andreas Tschiesner, Senior Partner at McKinsey, is convinced that new mobility solutions offer the greatest growth opportunities. “Europe and China are the most regulated markets, while North America is relatively free.” So the US giants Google and Co. have an advantage. The question is who will win the race in the end - the software industry or the automakers? For e.Go boss Schuh the solution is simple: “We need more computing power in the car, that must be the task of the car manufacturers in Germany. Here is your chance against Google and Co. “


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