D he European car association ACEA fears that the CO2 targets for 2021 could be missed because of the UK's exit from the EU. The ACEA declared on Monday (March 19, 2018) that the UK's exit from the EU (Brexit) in 2019 would have 'significant effects', since the country would be excluded from the statistics for all 28 EU countries.
95 gram limit put to the test
This is particularly important, as there is a particularly high proportion of environmentally friendly new vehicles in Great Britain. 16 percent of all e-cars sold in the EU and 31 percent of all hybrid models are registered there. Accordingly, the association pleads for the data from Great Britain to continue to be included in the statistics even after Brexit. Otherwise the EU Commission would have to “put the target of 95 grams to the test”.In this scenario, Stürmer even believes it is possible that more than two million vehicles will roll off the assembly line in Great Britain for the first time in 2022.
The base scenario assumes that the British economy will no longer be able to offer its products unhindered may export to the EU - but the automotive industry has a kind of special status. In this case, the auto industry is likely to slide into a slight recession before production gradually stabilizes at around 1.7 million vehicles in the early 2020s.
In the “downside” scenario, however, the EU becomes the British only grant the most-favored nation status according to the rules of the World Trade Organization. In this case, PwC Autofacts expects a structural decline, which could ultimately lead to the number of vehicles manufactured on the island slipping below the one million mark in 2022. This rapid decline is mainly due to the fact that at brand level for 75 percent of the vehicles produced in Great Britain, corresponding capacities are installed in the EU or Turkey.