ADAC report on the car toll: 250 million euros loss forecast

W he Spiegel reports, the renowned traffic expert Ralf Ratzenberger predicts that the foreigner toll planned by Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) will show a “shortfall” from the first year on. Ratzenberger calculates that the ongoing operation will already be a subsidy business for the state: in 2019 the minus is 71 million euros and in 2023 even 175 million euros. If the implementation costs of the project - the Ministry of Transport once estimated them at 380 million euros - over ten years, the deficit will rise to 213 million euros by 2023. With a corresponding allocation to five years, it is even 251 million euros.

Significantly lower total income

Ratzenberger assumes that the compromise with Brussels will cost the state dearly. Because almost only Euro 6 vehicles are registered, the number of profiteers increases over time. Ratzenberger calculates that the effect will reduce income by 137 million euros in 2019 and by 230 million euros in 2023.

Dobrindt assumes annual net income of around 520 million euros, but Ratzenberger already has for 2019 a minus of 71 million euros. Ratzenberger assumes that only around ten million vignettes are sold to foreign drivers each year - and not the almost 30 million that Dobrindt claims. This is why he only has gross income from foreign cars of 276 million euros and not 834 million euros like the minister.