Because the demand for microchips is currently far greater than the availability, car production comes to a standstill. Customers have to wait over a year for some models. A small ray of hope: The scarce supply of vehicles does not have a negative effect on possible discounts, especially for e-cars. The analysis shows which Stromer drivers are currently available quickly.
The semiconductor crisis has been slowing down automobile manufacturers for months. Without the small components not much runs in the car. They are the main component of microchips, which are mainly hidden in control units. And the automotive industry is waiting for these chips like no other industry. "Current figures show that the automotive industry is the industry most affected by supply bottlenecks with primary products," confirms Oliver Falck, head of the ifo Center for Industrial Organization and New Technologies.
On the other hand, customers are not spared the effects, as a look at the delivery times shows, which have been getting longer and longer for weeks. Only a few models are available at short notice. Of the e-cars, which are among the 30 most popular models in Germany, only two are available within three months - but none of the plug-in hybrids . On average, customers are currently waiting between five and six months for their new cars - the emphasis is on average, because if you choose the wrong model , you have to be patient for almost a year and a half .
Improvement in sight only in 2023 or 2024
What reminds of an emergency has a system. With the controlled scarcity economy, the industry is trying to keep the damage caused by the semiconductor crisis as small as possible. "We are currently prioritizing where the chips go," says Philipp Sayler von Amende, head of the online new car exchange carwow.de . "They mainly get high-margin models." What that means can be seen from the example of VW. Those responsible are currently sifting through the model series for possible prank candidates. No series is spared, even e-cars are hit by the cutback.
Due to a lack of semiconductors, the inexpensive Pure entry-level version of the 110 kW VW ID.3 can currently no longer be configured with the 45 kWh battery. Vehicles that have already been ordered are still to be delivered, but orders will only be accepted again soon. It is the customers who suffer, because they end up footing the bill. With the ID.3, the prices before deducting the subsidy no longer start at around 32,000, but only at around 37,000 euros.
VW: ID.3 and ID.4 only by quota
This example is not an isolated case. Some brands are doing this now, and the situation could continue for a while. If one believes the evaluation of the analysts from Gartner, then a recovery can be expected in 2023 or 2024 at the earliest.
And all that only because the manufacturers stopped or throttled vehicle production during the lockdown. To save money, they canceled or reduced orders for components, including orders for the semiconductors. Companies from the communication and entertainment electronics sector, which suddenly had and still have a greater need due to the pandemic, pushed into this demand gap.
This is exactly where the problem for the automotive industry lies. When demand for new cars suddenly picked up again a few months ago, global semiconductor production was, and still is, overwhelmed. "Contrary to many previous expectations, the production capacity in the chip area has not yet recovered and the pre-crisis level is far from being reached," says Marcus Kleinfeld, Managing Director at AlixPartners in Germany. In short: the car industry is suddenly at the end of the line.
Funding continues to bring high discounts
Since new cars are becoming scarce, good offers are less common. Instead of raising list prices, the industry uses another trick. It reduces their willingness to give up, which has the same effect. After years of high discounts, discounts are stagnating or even being reduced.
However, when it comes to the new mobility, little of it is recognizable, as our analysis shows. The average e-car discount structure is currently 32 percent and thus only one percent below the value a year ago. In the case of plug-in hybrids, on the other hand, the willingness to make discounts remained unchanged - as in 2021, an average discount of 27 percent is still possible when buying a car. The promotion of up to 9570 euros is the reason that the discounts have not fallen.
A ray of light that should last a while. Because there should be a bonus by the end of 2025, which takes the fear out of long delivery times. However, there is one caveat and that affects plug-in hybrid customers. Since the beginning of the year, part-time electric vehicles have only received funding if they can achieve a minimum electric range of 60 km (requirement by the end of 2021: 40 km) or emit a maximum of 50 grams of CO2 per kilometer. In 2023, even stricter regulations that have not yet been described in detail are to come into force. In view of the long delivery times, this can cause problems.
It is positive that the federal government is leaving everything in terms of funding this year as the previous government decided. This means that customers can still order many electric models without any problems. But by the end of the year, you should only take a look at those cars that have an electric range of at least 80 km, especially when it comes to plug-in hybrids. According to rumors, this will become a funding requirement from 2023.